A WARNING TO THE GOP – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:   A new poll, even though probably tilted somewhat in the liberal direction, should warn the GOP that it is losing the debt-crisis debate.  We've warned about that repeatedly here.  The president has the big megaphone.  He can call press conferences, and they're covered on national TV.  The Republicans can gather some "leaders," anonymous to most of the country, and give sound bites.  From The Politico:

President Barack Obama is winning the battle for public opinion in the negotiations to raise the debt ceiling, with the overwhelming majority disapproving of the way Republicans are handling it - even most GOP voters, according to a new poll on Monday.

Seventy-one percent of Americans surveyed for a CBS News poll released Monday morning say they oppose how Republicans are handling negotiations, while just 21 percent approve. In contrast, 48 percent disapprove of the president’s role in the talks, while 43 percent approve.

I've noticed that CBS polls tend to oversample Democrats.  I don't know if that's the case here, but, even if allowing a correction, the numbers are alarming.  At the same time, the poll was taken among "adults."  A poll among "likely voters" usually shows more support for Republican arguments. 

Congressional Democrats don’t do quite as well as Obama, but are still polling better than their GOP colleagues, with 48 percent of those surveyed saying they disapprove of the Democrats’ handling of the talks, while 31 percent approve.

Even among Republicans surveyed, the party led by Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) in the House isn’t faring all that well, with 51 percent saying they disapprove of how the party is handling the negotiations. Meanwhile, 32 percent of Democrats say they disapprove of how congressional Democrats are handling the talks, while 22 percent disapprove of the president’s handling.

COMMENT:  Some very idealistic Republicans in the House were quoted as saying yesterday that the debt crisis means more to them than reelection.  That's nice.  We will pat them on their heads.  But a shrewd, astute party knows how to handle its issues and win reelection.

Historically, Americans have had suspicion of the GOP because of its association with "big business" and Wall Street.  That suspicion lingers today.  Obama, one of the best campaigners we've seen, knows exactly how to exploit it.   Republicans should, in the debt talks, go for 75% of something rather than 100% of nothing. 

Ideology rarely wins in American politics.  Be careful, GOP.  Don't throw away 2012 over a battle in which you get the blame if things blow up.

July 18, 2011